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Seattle SeahawksSam Darnold Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam Darnold has gone over 16.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.7 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam Darnold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Lower Body Soreness
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Darnold lasted just five plays into the Seahawks' Super Bowl defense before leaving last Wednesday's Week 1 matchup with the Patriots due to what was initially described as a hip injury. After a series of updates since then, Darnold is believed to be tending to a "very unique" glute injury that is accompanied by a recovery timetable of four weeks, per Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. For as long as Darnold is sidelined, Drew Lock will direct Seattle's offense.
Verdict
vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
14.3 FS(×0.95 context)
L5 12.8 · L10 13.7 · med 12.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.9 · ceil 22.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 16.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ ARI
Sep 20, 2026
22ndof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 14.3 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 16.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (14.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Sam Darnold research
Sam Darnold — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Darnold Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Darnold Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Darnold Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.