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Seattle SeahawksSam Darnold Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam Darnold has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 12.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam Darnold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Quadriceps Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Head coach Mike Macdonald labeled Darnold week-to-week Wednesday while adding that Darnold isn't expected to be placed on injured reserve due to his injury. Backup Drew Lock missed the previous two games due to an elbow injury but has a chance to return Sunday against the Cardinals and take over the starting role. If Lock isn't ready to suit up, 2025 third-round pick Jalen Milroe could be tabbed for the first regular-season start of the latter's NFL career. Per Henderson, Macdonald also revealed that Darnold suffered a cracked rib on the second play of Seattle's Week 8 loss to the Bears, but the QB managed to play through that injury and eventually injured his quadriceps late in the game.
Verdict
vs 11.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
13.4 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 13.4 · L10 12.0 · med 11.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 19.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 11.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Nov 8, 2026
8thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 19.6 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 11.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 8th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (19.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 4.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.5%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-107
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.2%
Our model puts the over at 57.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Sam Darnold research
Sam Darnold — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Darnold Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Darnold Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Darnold Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.