Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold Completions

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Sam Darnold has gone over 19.5 CMP in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 19.8 CMP · our line

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OutSam Darnold isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

In his first year with the Seahawks, Darnold helmed his team's Super Bowl LX win over the Patriots, but despite that success the veteran QB acknowledges that there's still work to be done in terms of "continuing to hone in on the deep ball" as well as understanding how he can get better that way by "quieting (his) feet in the pocket." Darnold -- who threw for 4,048 yards and 25 TDs in 17 regular-season games in 2025 -- also points to his 20 regular-season turnovers (14 interceptions and six fumbles lost) as an area that he can improve. Looking ahead to the coming campaign, the 29-year-old will be working with a pass-catching corps that returns WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed and TE AJ Barner. Following the free-agent departure of RB Kenneth Walker, the team added Jadarian Price in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft to bolster a backfield that awaits the recovery of Zach Charbonnet, who's bouncing back from a torn ACL.

Verdict

vs 19.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency65supports it

Projection

21.9 CMP(×1.08 context)

L5 20.8 · L10 20.5 · med 20.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 16.0 · ceil 22.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2018 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Season18 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	72%	13/18
	67%	12/18
	56%	10/18
19.5Current	50%	9/18
	39%	7/18
	33%	6/18
	17%	3/18

Last 18 games — CMP per game vs. line 19.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away50%5/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%9/17Medium

With a teammate out

How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery-0.6 CMP when he sits

Without (3g)

19.3 CMP

33% over 19.5

With (15g)

19.9 CMP

53% over 19.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

21stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

NE allows 19.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Sam Darnold has gone over 19.5 CMP 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most CMP of 32 teams (19.0 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.