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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta
#87 · TE · 6' 3" · 245 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 59.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
LaPorta remains Detroit's top tight end after a 2025 regular season in which he was limited to nine games due to a herniated disc, and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing could be especially relevant for his fantasy outlook. Under Petzing, the Cardinals' offense leaned heavily on multiple TE packages last year, and Trey McBride put together a monster 126-1,239-11 campaign. As has been the case in recent seasons, the main thing clouding LaPorta's ceiling will be competition, with wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa, plus Pro Bowl RB Jahmyr Gibbs, all looking for targets from Jared Goff as well.
Verdict
vs 54.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
63.1 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 67.2 · L10 59.3 · med 54.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 35.4 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 54.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 54.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Isiah Pacheco out+30.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (5g)
70.8 REC YDS
60% over 54.5
With (3g)
40.0 REC YDS
33% over 54.5
Last matchup — @ WSH
Nov 9, 2025
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 31.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 33 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 54.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (31.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 25.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.