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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam LaPorta has gone over 4.5 REC in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The fourth-year tight end was one of Jared Goff's primary targets Thursday, finishing tied for second in receptions while checking in third in both receiving yards and targets. LaPorta also recorded his first touchdown catch of the season on a one-yard grab early in the fourth quarter, and over the first two games of the new campaign, he's encouragingly been targeted 15 times and parlayed those opportunities into 11 receptions for 100 yards and the TD. LaPorta should remain a key complementary option during a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 77% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line77supports it
Consistency63supports it
Projection
6.1 REC(×1.19 context)
L5 5.4 · L10 4.8 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 3.8 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Season10 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 100% | 10/10 | ||
| 80% | 8/10 | ||
| 4.5Current | 70% | 7/10 | |
| 30% | 3/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 | ||
| 0% | 0/10 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away83%5/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%6/9Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
NYJ allows 2.3 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 4.5 REC 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 70% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 16th-most REC of 32 teams (2.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 46.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 53.7%
Best Over
DraftKings+105
-5.1% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-125
-3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+31.0%
Our model puts the over at 77.3% vs the market's no-vig 46.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 70%.
More Sam LaPorta research
Sam LaPorta — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
LaPorta Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.