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Detroit LionsSam LaPorta Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Sam LaPorta has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After being limited to 1-18-0 on two targets in last Sunday's victory over the Packers, LaPorta remained quiet in a second straight divisional matchup with a formidable defense. A Week 9 date with the Dolphins will present a get-right spot for the tight end, who has 31 grabs for 367 yards and three touchdowns through seven games this season. LaPorta will be a locked-in TE1 play against Miami.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency42neutral
Matchup75supports it
Projection
5.4 REC(×1.11 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 4.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
8thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
MIA allows 3.0 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 8th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 56.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 43.4%
Best Over
Caesars-148
-5.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel+128
-1.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.2%
Our model puts the over at 65.8% vs the market's no-vig 56.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Sam LaPorta research
Sam LaPorta — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
LaPorta Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
LaPorta Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.