Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Targets

Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Sam LaPorta has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.8 TGT · our line

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OutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

LaPorta remains Detroit's top tight end after a 2025 regular season in which he was limited to nine games due to a herniated disc, and the arrival of new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing could be especially relevant for his fantasy outlook. Under Petzing, the Cardinals' offense leaned heavily on multiple TE packages last year, and Trey McBride put together a monster 126-1,239-11 campaign. As has been the case in recent seasons, the main thing clouding LaPorta's ceiling will be competition, with wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa, plus Pro Bowl RB Jahmyr Gibbs, all looking for targets from Jared Goff as well.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency48neutral

Projection

5.9 TGT(×1.01 context)

L5 5.8 · L10 5.8 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.0 · ceil 7.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	100%	8/8
	63%	5/8
5.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Isiah Pacheco out+1.7 TGT when he sits

Without (5g)

6.4 TGT

60% over 5.5

With (3g)

4.7 TGT

33% over 5.5

Last matchup — @ WSH

Nov 9, 2025

21stof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

WSH allows 3.4 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 33 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 21st-most TGT of 32 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.