Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Sam LaPorta has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutSam LaPorta isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The fourth-year tight end was one of Jared Goff's primary targets Thursday, finishing tied for second in receptions while checking in third in both receiving yards and targets. LaPorta also recorded his first touchdown catch of the season on a one-yard grab early in the fourth quarter, and over the first two games of the new campaign, he's encouragingly been targeted 15 times and parlayed those opportunities into 11 receptions for 100 yards and the TD. LaPorta should remain a key complementary option during a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC TD(×1.19 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	4/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%4/9Low

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NYJ allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Sam LaPorta has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.