Loading…
Cincinnati BengalsTee Higgins Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tee Higgins has gone over 5.5 REC in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 6.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTee Higgins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Higgins led the Bengals' air attack in receiving yards and touchdown catches on a day when Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdown passes overall. Higgins was responsible for a pair, making 17- and 18-yard scoring grabs in the second half. The latter erased a 36-29 deficit with 1:17 remaining in regulation to help force overtime, and Higgins now has at least 148 receiving yards in three of the last four games and a pair of TD catches in two straight. The veteran has essentially moved into a true 1-A role alongside Ja'Marr Chase in the passing attack, and Higgins will look to carry the massive momentum into a Week 9 matchup against a vulnerable Falcons secondary in Madrid next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 86% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line86supports it
Consistency32argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
9.0 REC(×1.22 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 6.8 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 5.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days80%4/5Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
4thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
ATL allows 4.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tee Higgins has gone over 5.5 REC 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (4.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.5%
Best Over
DraftKings+103
-3.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-115
-1.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+39.0%
Our model puts the over at 86.5% vs the market's no-vig 47.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Tee Higgins research
Tee Higgins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Higgins Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Higgins Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Higgins Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.