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Cincinnati BengalsTee Higgins Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tee Higgins has gone over 8.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.9 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTee Higgins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Higgins' receiving yardage and target totals paced the Bengals on the afternoon, and he finished second only to Ja'Marr Chase in receiving yards. The talented wide receiver duo accounted for 12 of Joe Burrow's 20 completions against a tough Texans defense, and Higgins now is averaging an elite 19.3 yards per reception on his first eight catches of the 2026 season. The veteran speedster will aim to continue thriving downfield in a Week 3 road matchup against the Steelers next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 8.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency63supports it
Projection
8.5 TGT(×1.06 context)
L5 8.2 · L10 8.2 · med 8.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 6.0 · ceil 9.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Season13 games
38%over
5 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 18%–64%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 12/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 8.5Current | 38% | 5/13 | |
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 8% | 1/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
PIT allows 3.2 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tee Higgins has gone over 8.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 38% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most TGT of 32 teams (3.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.
More Tee Higgins research
Tee Higgins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Higgins Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Higgins Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Higgins Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.