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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan
#4 · WR · 6' 5" · 212 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 92.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan led the Panthers in receiving yards despite generating a modest total, and the second-year wideout has now fallen under 60 receiving yards in consecutive games for the first time this season. He does have at least six grabs in three of the past four games and a trio of double-digit target tallies on the season, so he continues to sport a formidable fantasy floor despite Bryce Young's current struggles. Carolina's air attack may have a tough time bouncing back in Week 9, however, as the stingy Broncos defense comes to town on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 80.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
85.5 REC YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 95.4 · L10 92.0 · med 80.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 58.0 · ceil 101.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 80.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 80.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 8, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DEN allows 49.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 80.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 48.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 62.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+3.0%
Our model puts the over at 53.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (62 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.