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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan
#4 · WR · 6' 5" · 212 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan's yardage total comfortably paced the Panthers on the afternoon, and the second-year pro also led the team in targets while checking in as the runner-up in receptions. He's posted five catches apiece in each of his first two games of the season and parlayed them into a solid 176 receiving yards on 18 targets, all numbers that only serve to further cement his status as an integral component of Carolina's air attack. McMillan will next take aim at the Browns' inconsistent defense in a Week 3 road matchup next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 70.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
65.6 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 69.8 · L10 71.7 · med 74.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 46.0 · ceil 85.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 70.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 |
Situational splits
Over 70.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 45.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 70.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (45.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 26.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.