Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arizona
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

McMillan's yardage total comfortably paced the Panthers on the afternoon, and the second-year pro also led the team in targets while checking in as the runner-up in receptions. He's posted five catches apiece in each of his first two games of the season and parlayed them into a solid 176 receiving yards on 18 targets, all numbers that only serve to further cement his status as an integral component of Carolina's air attack. McMillan will next take aim at the Browns' inconsistent defense in a Week 3 road matchup next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 79% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line79supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×1.02 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

24%over

4 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–47%

Season17 games

24%over

4 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–47%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	24%	4/17
	12%	2/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%2/8Low

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%4/16Medium

Next matchup — @ CLE

Sep 27, 2026

4thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

CLE allows 0.5 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 24% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 24%.