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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 12.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.8 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan was in and out of practice during the spring due to ankle soreness, but he's ready to roll for the start of training camp now that pads are on and the season is inching closer. According to Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network, McMillan is expected to see more opportunities out of the slot this season after the Panthers used a third-round pick on outside weapon Chris Brazzell. McMillan added "eight or nine pounds of muscle" over the offseason, per Wolfe. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, McMillan will look to build on his 70-1,014-7 regular season from last year.
Verdict
vs 12.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency24argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
15.5 FS(×1.08 context)
L5 17.5 · L10 14.8 · med 12.3
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.9 · ceil 17.1
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 12.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away25%2/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — @ ARI
Aug 7, 2026
13thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 9.7 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 52 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 12.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (9.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Tetairoa McMillan research
Tetairoa McMillan — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McMillan Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McMillan Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
McMillan Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.