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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan Receptions
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 5.5 REC in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 6.7 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year wideout caught Bryce Young's third TD of the afternoon, a four-yard toss late in the fourth quarter that gave the Panthers some late hope. It was McMillan's first trip to the end zone since Week 4, and through eight games he's collected a 46-625-3 line on 71 targets. He'll look to build on this performance in a Week 10 road trip to New Orleans.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
7.0 REC(×1.07 context)
L5 7.0 · L10 6.7 · med 5.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 5.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 15, 2026
20thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 3.3 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 5.5 REC 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.5%
Best Over
FanDuel+112
-3.5% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-125
-1.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+16.1%
Our model puts the over at 61.6% vs the market's no-vig 45.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tetairoa McMillan research
Tetairoa McMillan — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McMillan Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
McMillan Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
McMillan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.