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Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence
#16 · QB · 6' 6" · 220 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 246.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lawrence helped the Jaguars to a commanding 28-0 halftime lead with scoring strikes to Brian Thomas (12 yards) and Nate Boerkircher (31 yards), and he added a 25-yard TD toss to Bhayshul Tuten as time expired in the third quarter. Lawrence eventually gave way to Quinn Ewers late in the blowout win, but not before completing 71.4 percent of his passes and throwing at least three touchdown passes for the fourth time on the campaign. Lawrence now has 1,690 passing yards with a 17:4 TD:INT and has added 80 rushing yards heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Ravens on Thursday night.
Verdict
vs 236.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 31% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line31argues against it
Consistency62supports it
Projection
272.0 PASS YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 247.0 · L10 246.7 · med 236.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 189.0 · ceil 306.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 236.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 236.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ BAL
Nov 6, 2026
13thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
BAL allows 237.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 236.5 PASS YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (237.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 55.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 234.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+19.5%
Our model puts the over at 69.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (233.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.