Loading…
Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trevor Lawrence has gone over 19.5 CMP in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 19.7 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lawrence helped lead the Jaguars to a 10-3 halftime lead and 13-6 advantage after three quarters, but the Broncos' defense progressively exerted its will and ended up holding him to a 52.4 QBR while sacking him twice. Lawrence's interception was also costly, as it came late in the third quarter at the Broncos' 33-yard line and led to a Denver touchdown. The drop-off in performance for Lawrence compared to Week 1 was fairly drastic, and the 2021 first overall pick will face another high-caliber defense in a Week 3 home matchup against the Patriots next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)47neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency71supports it
Projection
19.1 CMP(×1.00 context)
L5 19.6 · L10 19.2 · med 18.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.0 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 17/20 | ||
| 75% | 15/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 19.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 35% | 7/20 | ||
| 30% | 6/20 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 19.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 19.5 CMP 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most CMP of 32 teams (19.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Trevor Lawrence research
Trevor Lawrence — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lawrence Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Lawrence Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Lawrence Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.