Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Trevor Lawrence has gone over 21.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 19.7 FS · our line

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OutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lawrence helped the Jaguars to a commanding 28-0 halftime lead with scoring strikes to Brian Thomas (12 yards) and Nate Boerkircher (31 yards), and he added a 25-yard TD toss to Bhayshul Tuten as time expired in the third quarter. Lawrence eventually gave way to Quinn Ewers late in the blowout win, but not before completing 71.4 percent of his passes and throwing at least three touchdown passes for the fourth time on the campaign. Lawrence now has 1,690 passing yards with a 17:4 TD:INT and has added 80 rushing yards heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Ravens on Thursday night.

Verdict

vs 21.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency38argues against it

Projection

21.7 FS(×1.05 context)

L5 18.4 · L10 19.7 · med 21.8

Consistency

Variable

floor 13.1 · ceil 26.1

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
21.5Current	50%	3/6
	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6

Last 6 games — FS per game vs. line 21.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 21.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — @ BAL

Nov 6, 2026

13thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

BAL allows 18.0 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 21.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (18.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.