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Jacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trevor Lawrence has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 19.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor Lawrence isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lawrence helped lead the Jaguars to a 10-3 halftime lead and 13-6 advantage after three quarters, but the Broncos' defense progressively exerted its will and ended up holding him to a 52.4 QBR while sacking him twice. Lawrence's interception was also costly, as it came late in the third quarter at the Broncos' 33-yard line and led to a Denver touchdown. The drop-off in performance for Lawrence compared to Week 1 was fairly drastic, and the 2021 first overall pick will face another high-caliber defense in a Week 3 home matchup against the Patriots next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.7 RUSH YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 21.8 · med 22.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.6 · ceil 29.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%4/11Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
24thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 9.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor Lawrence has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 24th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (9.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 16.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.5%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-4.4% EV
Best Under
Caesars-108
-4.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-1.5%
Our model puts the over at 49.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (16.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Trevor Lawrence research
Trevor Lawrence — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lawrence Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Lawrence Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Lawrence Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.