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Arizona CardinalsTrey McBride
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 246 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 72.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey McBride isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brissett, who started 12 games for Arizona last season after Murray was injured, is still looking to secure a reworked deal for this coming season. However, Mackie believes that the veteran QB seems to have the inside track to the 2026 starting job, provided his contract issue is settled. Regardless of who gets the Week 1 signal-caller nod, McBride remains an elite fantasy option at the TE position and is on track to see high volume in the Cardinals' passing attack, on the heels of a 2025 regular season in which he racked up 126 catches (on 169 targets) for 1,239 yards and 11 TDs in 17 contests.
Verdict
vs 72.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
74.4 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 72.0 · L10 81.8 · med 77.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 52.6 · ceil 81.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 72.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 72.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacoby Brissett out-18.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
58.5 REC YDS
25% over 72.5
With (13g)
77.3 REC YDS
54% over 72.5
Tyler Allgeier out-0.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
72.8 REC YDS
50% over 72.5
With (9g)
73.0 REC YDS
44% over 72.5
Last matchup — @ LAR
Jan 4, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAR allows 26.1 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trey McBride has gone over 72.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 28.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.