Loading…
Arizona CardinalsTrey McBride Receiving TDs
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trey McBride has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey McBride isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brissett, who started 12 games for Arizona last season after Murray was injured, is still looking to secure a reworked deal for this coming season. However, Mackie believes that the veteran QB seems to have the inside track to the 2026 starting job, provided his contract issue is settled. Regardless of who gets the Week 1 signal-caller nod, McBride remains an elite fantasy option at the TE position and is on track to see high volume in the Cardinals' passing attack, on the heels of a 2025 regular season in which he racked up 126 catches (on 169 targets) for 1,239 yards and 11 TDs in 17 contests.
Verdict
vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.6 REC TD(×1.01 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)
REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 12% | 2/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 | ||
| 0% | 0/17 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%2/8Low
Away78%7/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%9/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacoby Brissett out-0.5 REC TD when he sits
Without (4g)
0.3 REC TD
25% over 0.5
With (13g)
0.8 REC TD
62% over 0.5
Tyler Allgeier out+0.4 REC TD when he sits
Without (8g)
0.9 REC TD
63% over 0.5
With (9g)
0.4 REC TD
44% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs CAR
Aug 7, 2026
19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends
CAR allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trey McBride has gone over 0.5 REC TD 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Trey McBride research
Trey McBride — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McBride Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McBride Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
McBride Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.