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Arizona CardinalsTrey McBride Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trey McBride has gone over 16.5 FS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.9 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey McBride isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McBride was in the familiar position of leading the Cardinals across the board in receptions, receiving yards and targets, while also being on the receiving end of Jacoby Brissett's one touchdown pass. McBride recorded his three-yard scoring grab early in the fourth quarter, a critical touchdown considering it extended what had been a narrow 16-14 lead for Arizona. The talented tight end's performance was all the more impressive considering the presence of All-Pro safety Derwin James on the other side, and McBride will look to carry over his significant season-opening momentum into a Week 2 divisional home clash with the defending champion Seahawks next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency29argues against it
Projection
19.7 FS(×1.00 context)
L5 21.1 · L10 21.1 · med 22.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.1 · ceil 26.3
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2018 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under · 1 push
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season18 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under · 1 push
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 61% | 11/18 | ||
| 56% | 10/18 | ||
| 16.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 44% | 8/18 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%9/16Medium
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 20, 2026
13thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
SEA allows 6.4 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trey McBride has gone over 16.5 FS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (6.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Trey McBride research
Trey McBride — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McBride Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McBride Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
McBride Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.