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Arizona CardinalsTrey McBride Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Trey McBride has gone over 10.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 10.8 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey McBride isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Cardinals offense experienced a QB change from Jacoby Brissett to Gardner Minshew late in the third quarter, but McBride was undeterred, extending his streak of seven-plus catches to eight consecutive contests to begin the season while also scoring his fifth TD of 2026 on a 14-yard connection with Minshew with 2:11 remaining in regulation. Overall, McBride has a 66-544-5 line on 86 targets just shy of the midpoint of the campaign, putting him on pace to surpass most of his career-high marks (126-1,239-11 on 169 targets) from a season ago. It's unclear who between Brissett and Minshew will be under center next Sunday at Seattle, but McBride and WR Michael Wilson (ribs), assuming the latter suits up, will be the top options in the passing game.
Verdict
vs 10.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency73supports it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
9.9 TGT(×0.95 context)
L5 10.4 · L10 10.8 · med 10.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 9.4 · ceil 12.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 10.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 10.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
SEA allows 4.2 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Trey McBride has gone over 10.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 6th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.2 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Trey McBride research
Trey McBride — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McBride Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McBride Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
McBride Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.