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Arizona CardinalsTrey McBride
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 246 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Colorado State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrey McBride isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Cardinals offense experienced a QB change from Jacoby Brissett to Gardner Minshew late in the third quarter, but McBride was undeterred, extending his streak of seven-plus catches to eight consecutive contests to begin the season while also scoring his fifth TD of 2026 on a 14-yard connection with Minshew with 2:11 remaining in regulation. Overall, McBride has a 66-544-5 line on 86 targets just shy of the midpoint of the campaign, putting him on pace to surpass most of his career-high marks (126-1,239-11 on 169 targets) from a season ago. It's unclear who between Brissett and Minshew will be under center next Sunday at Seattle, but McBride and WR Michael Wilson (ribs), assuming the latter suits up, will be the top options in the passing game.
Verdict
vs 68.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency39argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
61.9 REC YDS(×0.87 context)
L5 66.6 · L10 68.0 · med 69.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 45.8 · ceil 87.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 68.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Nov 8, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
SEA allows 23.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Trey McBride has gone over 68.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 24.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 60.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
BetMGM-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-11.9%
Our model puts the over at 38.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (60.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.