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Green Bay PackersTucker Kraft
#85 · TE · 6' 5" · 259 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 47.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTucker Kraft isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kraft kicked off the scoring on the night for the Packers with his 12-yard TD grab in the first quarter, marking his third of the season and second in as many games. The athletic tight end also recorded the third-most catches and receiving yards on the night for Green Bay, and Kraft now has at least five receptions in four of the last five games. Kraft will take a 35-350-3 line on 49 targets into a Week 9 road matchup against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 47.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency54neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
42.8 REC YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 48.8 · L10 47.9 · med 48.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 38.0 · ceil 61.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 47.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 47.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ NE
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 24.6 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Tucker Kraft has gone over 47.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 18th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (24.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 13.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 45.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.1%
Our model puts the over at 37.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (45.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.