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Green Bay PackersTucker Kraft Targets
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tucker Kraft has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.4 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTucker Kraft isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kraft avoided the Week 1 injury report in his return from a torn ACL suffered Week 9 of last season. He finished third on the team in receiving yards in his return, behind wide receivers Christian Watson (147 yards) and Matthew Golden (95 yards). Kraft is poised to maintain a prominent role Week 2 against the Jets.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency43neutral
Projection
7.7 TGT(×1.14 context)
L5 6.8 · L10 6.4 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.2 · ceil 8.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 5.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ NYJ
Sep 20, 2026
16thof 31 in TGT allowed to tight ends
NYJ allows 3.0 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Tucker Kraft has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 16th-most TGT of 31 teams (3.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Tucker Kraft research
Tucker Kraft — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kraft Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Kraft Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kraft Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.