Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tucker Kraft has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Dakota State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.7 REC TD · our line

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OutTucker Kraft isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kraft was one of five Packers to put the ball on the ground in slick conditions Sunday, but four of those fumbles were recovered by Green Bay, including Kraft's miscue. The star tight end has just five catches for 80 yards through two games in his return from a torn ACL suffered in Week 9 of last season. Prior to the injury, Kraft averaged over 60 yards per game and scored six times in eight games during the 2025 regular season. He may still be working his way back to 100 percent heading into Thursday's Week 3 home game against the struggling Falcons.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 REC TD(×1.06 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	57%	4/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Next matchup — vs ATL

Sep 25, 2026

4thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

ATL allows 0.6 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Tucker Kraft has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 4th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.