Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 2, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tucker Kraft has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Dakota State
Experience: 5 seasons

Top reads — this player & matchup

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Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.8 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Tucker Kraft's status before the game.

Injury:: Right Knee - ACL Surgery

Kraft is two days shy of being nine months removed from the right ACL tear that he suffered Week 9 of last season. Among his activities Friday were hitting a blocking pad, catching passes on the side and running some routes on air. Kraft relayed that before the session he convened with doctors from the University of Wisconsin, one of whom told him his knee appears "spectacular, almost like he had never seen rehabilitation like mine." During mandatory minicamp in June, Kraft stated his intention to play Week 1 at Minnesota on Sunday, Sept. 13, but first, his focus will be on increasing his activity level while he and his reps engage Green Bay brass on a potential contract extension.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Warm overFireFactor 27/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.0 REC TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Last 206 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Season6 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	67%	4/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Chris Brooks out · Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified+0.3 REC TD when he sits

Without (3g)

1.0 REC TD

67% over 0.5

With (3g)

0.7 REC TD

67% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ PIT

Oct 27, 2025

9thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

PIT allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Tucker Kraft has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 9th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.