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Green Bay PackersTucker Kraft Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tucker Kraft has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.4 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTucker Kraft isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kraft was one of five Packers to put the ball on the ground in slick conditions Sunday, but four of those fumbles were recovered by Green Bay, including Kraft's miscue. The star tight end has just five catches for 80 yards through two games in his return from a torn ACL suffered in Week 9 of last season. Prior to the injury, Kraft averaged over 60 yards per game and scored six times in eight games during the 2025 regular season. He may still be working his way back to 100 percent heading into Thursday's Week 3 home game against the struggling Falcons.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
4.8 REC(×1.06 context)
L5 4.6 · L10 4.4 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 4.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
15thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
ATL allows 2.4 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Tucker Kraft has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (2.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 58.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 42.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-154
-4.4% EV
Best Under
BetMGM+125
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.7%
Our model puts the over at 55.2% vs the market's no-vig 58.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Tucker Kraft research
Tucker Kraft — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kraft Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kraft Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kraft Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.