Tennessee Titans

Wan'Dale Robinson Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Wan'Dale Robinson has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Kentucky
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.9 REC · our line

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OutWan'Dale Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Robinson didn't experience a significant change in role in the absence of Carnell Tate (shoulder), as this was the fourth consecutive game in which Robinson notched either six or seven targets. His 57 receiving yards tied a season high, and Robinson scored his third touchdown of the season on a 15-yard catch in the fourth quarter. The Titans took a seven-point lead with 3:46 remaining after a successful two-point conversion following Robinson's TD, but the Bengals answered with a game-tying touchdown drive and eventually won in OT to drop the Titans to 1-7. Robinson and the Titans will be on bye in Week 9 before returning to action against the Jaguars in Week 10.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line47neutral

Consistency50neutral

Projection

4.4 REC(×0.91 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 4.9 · med 5.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.2 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
	71%	5/7
4.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — @ CIN

Nov 1, 2026

25thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

CIN allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 25 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Wan'Dale Robinson has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 5.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 48.5%
No-vig fair (under): 51.5%

Best Over

Sleeper-119

-10.8% EV

Best Under

Sleeper-137

-10.8% EV

Model vs market (over)-1.8%

Our model puts the over at 46.7% vs the market's no-vig 48.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.