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Baltimore RavensZay Flowers
#4 · WR · 5' 9" · 183 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 86.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutZay Flowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Joe Fagnano drew the start with both Lamar Jackson (IR, thumb) and Tyler Huntley (IR, toe) out of action, and the rookie undrafted signal-caller averaged a microscopic 3.3 yards per attempt and threw two interceptions. Therefore, Flowers once again put forth a forgettable receiving line, although he at least got on the board with a trio of catches after being blanked on five targets in the Week 8 loss to the Bills. The Ravens tried to boost Flowers' touches with his trio of rush attempts, and he was reasonably effective with those. While fantasy managers have gotten next to nothing from the talented receiver over the last two games, Jacoby Brissett, who Baltimore is finalizing a trade for with the Cardinals, could be ready to suit up as soon as a Week 10 home matchup with the Chargers on Monday night, Nov. 16.
Verdict
vs 83.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
89.7 REC YDS(×1.17 context)
L5 74.8 · L10 86.9 · med 84.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.6 · ceil 133.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 83.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 83.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs JAX
Nov 6, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 52.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 83.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (52.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 48.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 48.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.2%
Our model puts the over at 59.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (49 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.