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Baltimore RavensZay Flowers
#4 · WR · 5' 9" · 183 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boston College
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 74.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutZay Flowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Ravens already picked up Flowers' fifth-year option, keeping him under contract through 2027 while giving both sides time to work out an extension. Flowers has also made clear he wants to remain with Baltimore long term, so a deal appears more a matter of timing than interest. Flowers is solidified as the No. 1 receiving option for quarterback Lamar Jackson and posted a career-best 86-1,215-5 line in 2025 while playing in all 17 regular-season games.
Verdict
vs 73.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
76.1 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 88.8 · L10 72.5 · med 71.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 58.0 · ceil 84.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 73.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Lamar Jackson out-29.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
52.8 REC YDS
0% over 73.5
With (12g)
82.3 REC YDS
67% over 73.5
Last matchup — @ PIT
Jan 5, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
PIT allows 50.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 60 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 73.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (50.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 34.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.