Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zay Flowers has gone over 5.5 REC in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boston College
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 5.4 REC · our line

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OutZay Flowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Joe Fagnano drew the start with both Lamar Jackson (IR, thumb) and Tyler Huntley (IR, toe) out of action, and the rookie undrafted signal-caller averaged a microscopic 3.3 yards per attempt and threw two interceptions. Therefore, Flowers once again put forth a forgettable receiving line, although he at least got on the board with a trio of catches after being blanked on five targets in the Week 8 loss to the Bills. The Ravens tried to boost Flowers' touches with his trio of rush attempts, and he was reasonably effective with those. While fantasy managers have gotten next to nothing from the talented receiver over the last two games, Jacoby Brissett, who Baltimore is finalizing a trade for with the Cardinals, could be ready to suit up as soon as a Week 10 home matchup with the Chargers on Monday night, Nov. 16.

Verdict

vs 5.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency18argues against it

Projection

5.0 REC(×1.05 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.4 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.8 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	7/8
	75%	6/8
	75%	6/8
5.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs JAX

Nov 5, 2026

15thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

JAX allows 3.5 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 5.5 REC 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

6 books @ 4.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 50.7%
No-vig fair (under): 49.3%

Best Over

FanDuel-114

-4.8% EV

Best Under

DraftKings+101

-1.0% EV

Model vs market (over)-7.6%

Our model puts the over at 43.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receptions (REC)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.