Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zay Flowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boston College
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Zay Flowers's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Hamstring Not Specified

Minter's comments essentially match what Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported earlier Monday, as Flowers' left hamstring injury isn't considered serious and is unlikely to result in the wideout missing much time, if any. Before departing Sunday's 41-23 win over the Colts with just under six minutes remaining in the second quarter, Flowers had a banner day, recording five receptions for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown. If Flowers is able to make enough progress in his recovery from the hamstring injury as Week 2 prep rolls along and is cleared to play next Sunday versus the Saints, he should be locked in as quarterback Lamar Jackson's top target.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

Cool underFireFactor 35/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

29%over

5 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 13%–53%

Season17 games

29%over

5 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 13%–53%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	29%	5/17
	6%	1/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/8Medium

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%4/16Medium

Next matchup — vs NO

Sep 20, 2026

1stof 30 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NO allows 1.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 29% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC TD of 30 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.