Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zay Flowers has gone over 13.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boston College
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.0 FS · our line

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OutZay Flowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Ravens already picked up Flowers' fifth-year option, keeping him under contract through 2027 while giving both sides time to work out an extension. Flowers has also made clear he wants to remain with Baltimore long term, so a deal appears more a matter of timing than interest. Flowers is solidified as the No. 1 receiving option for quarterback Lamar Jackson and posted a career-best 86-1,215-5 line in 2025 while playing in all 17 regular-season games.

Verdict

vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

16.7 FS(×0.95 context)

L5 20.1 · L10 14.8 · med 12.6

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.4 · ceil 20.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	14/16
	75%	12/16
	56%	9/16
13.5Current	50%	8/16
	38%	6/16
	31%	5/16
	25%	4/16

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Lamar Jackson out-4.0 FS when he sits

Without (4g)

12.0 FS

25% over 13.5

With (12g)

16.0 FS

58% over 13.5

Last matchup — @ PIT

Jan 5, 2026

3rdof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

PIT allows 10.8 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 60 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Zay Flowers has gone over 13.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most FS of 32 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.