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Indianapolis ColtsAlec Pierce
#14 · WR · 6' 3" · 211 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 73.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
DoubtfulDoubtfulConfirm Alec Pierce's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Not Specified
Pierce had surgery on the same heel/ankle in late March and was a spectator for most of training camp and the preseason, though he was cleared to play Week 1 of the regular season. The wideout then aggravated the issue in the second quarter of Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to Kansas City. Though X-rays were returned negative, Pierce is dealing with enough of a setback that he'll have to miss extended time and could end up on injured reserve. Indianapolis signed veteran receiver Darius Slayton on Monday to help boost the team's wideout corps, per Tom Pelissero of Netflix.
Verdict
vs 73.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 3/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
65.7 REC YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 71.8 · L10 80.3 · med 82.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.8 · ceil 90.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 73.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 70.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 73.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (70.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 31.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 44.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-10.1%
Our model puts the over at 39.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (44.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.