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Indianapolis ColtsAlec Pierce
#14 · WR · 6' 3" · 211 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 73.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlec Pierce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 29, 2026
Steichen said that Pierce, who has been on IR since Sept. 26, is currently rehabbing his injury, but the wideout's return is clearly not imminent. At 2-6, the Colts, who are already sellers ahead of the NFL trade deadline, have little incentive to rush Pierce back. Meanwhile, fellow WR Josh Downs has asked to be dealt, a situation that further clouds the team's pass-catching corps ahead of Week 9.
Verdict
vs 73.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
73.4 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 71.8 · L10 80.3 · med 82.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.8 · ceil 90.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 73.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DAL allows 47.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 73.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 31.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.