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Indianapolis ColtsAlec Pierce Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Alec Pierce has gone over 3.5 REC in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
DoubtfulDoubtfulConfirm Alec Pierce's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Not Specified
Pierce had surgery on the same heel/ankle in late March and was a spectator for most of training camp and the preseason, though he was cleared to play Week 1 of the regular season. The wideout then aggravated the issue in the second quarter of Sunday's 33-30 overtime loss to Kansas City. Though X-rays were returned negative, Pierce is dealing with enough of a setback that he'll have to miss extended time and could end up on injured reserve. Indianapolis signed veteran receiver Darius Slayton on Monday to help boost the team's wideout corps, per Tom Pelissero of Netflix.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsWarm overFireFactor 24/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
3.1 REC(×0.89 context)
L5 3.4 · L10 3.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2014 games
71%over
10 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 45%–88%Season14 games
71%over
10 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 45%–88%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 13/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 3.5Current | 71% | 10/14 | |
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away100%5/5Medium
Days since last game
3+ days77%10/13Medium
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
6thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 4.4 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 3.5 REC 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 71% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC of 32 teams (4.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 57.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 43.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-140
-2.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars+120
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.2%
Our model puts the over at 49.7% vs the market's no-vig 57.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.
More Alec Pierce research
Alec Pierce — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Pierce Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Pierce Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Pierce Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.