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Indianapolis ColtsAlec Pierce Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Alec Pierce has gone over 5.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.2 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
DoubtfulDoubtfulConfirm Alec Pierce's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Not Specified
Pierce had surgery on the same heel/ankle this spring and was hampered throughout training camp, though he was able to play Week 1 of the regular season. The wideout then aggravated the issue this past Sunday night against Kansas City. Though X-rays returned negative, Pierce is now slated to miss extended time and could end up on IR. Indianapolis signed veteran receiver Darius Slayton on Monday to help boost the team's wideout corps, per Tom Pelissero of Netflix.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
5.5 TGT(×0.89 context)
L5 6.0 · L10 7.0 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.6 · ceil 7.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Doubtful — likely sidelined; confirm status first.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 93% | 13/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 5.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 14% | 2/14 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home22%2/9Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 7.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 5.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 43% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (7.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Alec Pierce research
Alec Pierce — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Pierce Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Pierce Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Pierce Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.