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Indianapolis ColtsAlec Pierce Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Alec Pierce has gone over 13.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Cincinnati
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 14.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Alec Pierce's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Not Specified
Pierce caught his only target for 11 yards prior to exiting the game. He came up lame while running a route and was subsequently carted to the locker room. Pierce's left heel injury is perhaps connected to an offseason ankle surgery that prevented him from practicing prior to September. Further details on Pierce's injury will be provided prior to the Colts' Week 3 home game against the Texans.
Verdict
vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 4/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
13.8 FS(×0.93 context)
L5 15.4 · L10 15.4 · med 16.1
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.4 · ceil 18.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 13.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — @ KC
Sep 21, 2026
32ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 4.2 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 13.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 46% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (4.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More Alec Pierce research
Alec Pierce — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Pierce Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Pierce Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Pierce Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.