Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alec Pierce has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Cincinnati
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutAlec Pierce isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Ankle Surgery
Est. return:: Aug 13, 2026

Pierce underwent ankle surgery in March and was given a return timeline of 4-to-6 months. He was placed on the active/PUP list to begin training camp Monday and can be activated at any time, but the goal all along has been for Pierce to be ready for Week 1. Fresh off re-signing with Indy on a four-year, $114 million deal and with Michael Pittman out of the picture, Pierce is expected to operate as the clear WR1 this season for quarterback Daniel Jones (Achilles).

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

33%over

4 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–61%

Season12 games

33%over

4 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–61%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	4/12
	17%	2/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%4/11Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Daniel Jones out+1.1 REC TD when he sits

Without (3g)

1.3 REC TD

67% over 0.5

With (9g)

0.2 REC TD

22% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

29thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Alec Pierce has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 33% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.