Loading…
New Orleans SaintsAlvin Kamara
#41 · RB · 5' 10" · 215 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 48.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It's difficult to be less efficient than this, as Kamara's 16 opportunities produced a total of 22 yards. It was the veteran running back's season debut after he missed the entire preseason and Week 1 recovering from a sprained MCL. Kamara made the start alongside Travis Etienne, who turned his eight carries into 25 yards while securing both of his targets for six yards. The Saints continue to use a full-blown three-man committee out of the backfield, as Etienne led the trio with 37 snaps to Kamara's 20 and CJ Donaldson's 20. Now 31 years old and coming off a knee injury, Kamara may not have a whole lot left in the tank.
Verdict
vs 42.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
41.4 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 36.8 · L10 48.9 · med 42.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 27.6 · ceil 75.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 42.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LV allows 51.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 42.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. LV has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 27.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.