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New Orleans SaintsAlvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Alvin Kamara has gone over 14.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 18.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It's difficult to be less efficient than this, as Kamara's 16 opportunities produced a total of 22 yards. It was the veteran running back's season debut after he missed the entire preseason and Week 1 recovering from a sprained MCL. Kamara made the start alongside Travis Etienne, who turned his eight carries into 25 yards while securing both of his targets for six yards. The Saints continue to use a full-blown three-man committee out of the backfield, as Etienne led the trio with 37 snaps to Kamara's 20 and CJ Donaldson's 20. Now 31 years old and coming off a knee injury, Kamara may not have a whole lot left in the tank.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.7 REC YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 22.6 · L10 18.0 · med 14.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.0 · ceil 29.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 14.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
LV allows 22.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 9 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. LV has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 7th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Alvin Kamara research
Alvin Kamara — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kamara Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Kamara Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Kamara Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Kamara Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.