New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Targets

Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvin Kamara has gone over 5.5 TGT in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.0 TGT · our line

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OutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Saints' ground game was completely shut down, as quarterback Tyler Shough led the team with a mere seven rushing yards, but Kamara still contributed through the air and led New Orleans in catches while tying Barion Brown for the game high in receiving yards. Since missing the season opener, Kamara has put together 258 scrimmage yards and three total TDs (two rushing, one receiving) over six games, but the backfield could get more crowded after a Week 8 bye if Travis Etienne (hamstring) is cleared to return.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency24argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

4.9 TGT(×0.94 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.4 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
	80%	4/5
	60%	3/5
5.5Current	60%	3/5
	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — vs CLE

Nov 8, 2026

24thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CLE allows 2.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 5.5 TGT 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 24th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.