New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 9 decided games (11%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.1 RUSH TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kamara made an early exit from an Aug. 18 joint practice with the Cowboys and was diagnosed with an MCL sprain that was expected to sideline him for one month. While he was inactive for the Saints' Week 1 contest in Detroit, he followed up back-to-back limited sessions with a full practice last Friday, indicating that he was closing in on a return to action. With a pair of uncapped practices so far this week, he's in line to join Travis Etienne out of the Saints backfield Sunday, and potentially without any limits on his workload.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 94% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line94supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 RUSH TD(×0.94 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 109 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Last 209 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Season9 games

11%over

1 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–44%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away0%0/5Medium

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/8Medium

Next matchup — vs LV

Sep 27, 2026

13thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

LV allows 0.3 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 9 decided times (11%) — versus 11% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 11%.