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New Orleans SaintsAlvin Kamara Rushing TDs
Stats updated: Oct 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Rushing TDs · season avg 0.4 RUSH TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Alvin Kamara's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Back Not Specified
The veteran RB was back on the field Thursday after getting a rest day to open the practice week. Kamara has also dealt with a back issue that limited his practice participation in recent weeks. The Saints are coming off a bye, so the added time off likely bodes well for Kamara being closer to full strength heading into Week 9 against the Browns. New Orleans' practice report will provide insight on Kamara's participation level, but he seems to be trending in the right direction regardless.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDsCool underFireFactor 36/100· model 76% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.4 RUSH TD(×1.02 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 105 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 205 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Season5 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)
RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 20% | 1/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — vs CLE
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs
CLE allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.
More Alvin Kamara research
Alvin Kamara — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
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Kamara Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Kamara Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kamara Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.