New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 8 decided games (13%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.1 RUSH TD · our line

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OutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kamara is closing in on a new deal that will allow him to remain with the Saints, presumably by lowering the $10.4 million cap hit his current contract carries for the 2026 campaign. The soon-to-be 31-year-old has spent his entire NFL career to date in New Orleans and remains a versatile playmaker capable of contributing in a complementary role behind new starting running back Travis Etienne. Across 11 regular-season appearances in 2025, Kamara rushed 131 times for 471 yards and one score and secured 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 RUSH TD(×0.94 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 108 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Last 208 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Season8 games

13%over

1 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–47%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/7Medium

Last matchup — @ CAR

Nov 9, 2025

8thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

CAR allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 8 decided times (13%) — versus 13% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 13%.