New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Carries

Stats updated: Nov 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvin Kamara has gone over 13.5 CAR in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 14.5 CAR · our line

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OutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kamara is closing in on a new deal that will allow him to remain with the Saints, presumably by lowering the $10.4 million cap hit his current contract carries for the 2026 campaign. The soon-to-be 31-year-old has spent his entire NFL career to date in New Orleans and remains a versatile playmaker capable of contributing in a complementary role behind new starting running back Travis Etienne. Across 11 regular-season appearances in 2025, Kamara rushed 131 times for 471 yards and one score and secured 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.

Verdict

vs 13.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency43neutral

Projection

14.0 CAR(×0.94 context)

L5 13.2 · L10 14.5 · med 13.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 10.4 · ceil 19.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	6/8
	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
13.5Current	50%	4/8
	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8

Last 8 games — CAR per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — @ CAR

Nov 9, 2025

23rdof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

CAR allows 10.4 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 13.5 CAR 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most CAR of 32 teams (10.4 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.