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Denver BroncosJ.K. Dobbins
#27 · RB · 5' 10" · 212 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 73.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm J.K. Dobbins's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified
The latest news on Dobbins aligns with what James Palmer of Bleacher Report previously relayed following the Broncos' 20-13 win over the Jaguars on Sunday, when Dobbins made an early exit due to a "slight" hamstring issue. While the Broncos are optimistic that Dobbins won't have to miss any time, his activity during practices Wednesday through Friday will ultimately determine whether he suits up against the Rams. Denver could have all of its key backfield members available for Week 3, as head coach Sean Payton suggested during his press conference Monday that RJ Harvey (hamstring) could return to action after sitting out against the Jaguars, per Nick Kosmider of The Athletic.
Verdict
vs 76.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency51neutral
Projection
66.3 RUSH YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 73.2 · L10 74.5 · med 78.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 61.0 · ceil 83.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 76.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 36% | 4/11 |
Situational splits
Over 76.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%6/10Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
6thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAR allows 66.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 76.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (66.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 21.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 59.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.9%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-5.7% EV
Best Under
Caesars-112
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.9%
Our model puts the over at 40.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (58.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.