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Denver BroncosJ.K. Dobbins Carries
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
J.K. Dobbins has gone over 15.5 CAR in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 15.3 CAR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm J.K. Dobbins's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified
Dobbins favored his hamstring as he left the field in the second half and promptly visited the sideline tent. While he was spotted with his helmet after being evaluated, he may not return to the Broncos' Week 2 contest, and if he doesn't, he'll finish with 10 carries for 36 yards. With direct backup RB RJ Harvey (hamstring) inactive Sunday, rookie fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie are left as the healthy options at the position.
Verdict
vs 15.5 CARCarriesCool underFireFactor 31/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)82supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency75supports it
Projection
15.5 CAR(×0.99 context)
L5 15.2 · L10 15.3 · med 15.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 14.0 · ceil 16.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 15.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%3/9Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
15thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
LAR allows 12.0 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 15.5 CAR 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most CAR of 32 teams (12.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 13.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 52.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-114
-2.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars+100
-4.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.8%
Our model puts the over at 44.2% vs the market's no-vig 52.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- BetMGMline 12.5under rate 10%edge 0
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More J.K. Dobbins research
J.K. Dobbins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Dobbins Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.