Denver Broncos

J.K. Dobbins Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

J.K. Dobbins has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.4 RUSH TD · our line

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OutJ.K. Dobbins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Dobbins led the Broncos with 772 rushing yards across 10 regular-season games during the 2025 campaign, and he's likely to maintain a prominent role in the team's 2026 backfield mix, even with Denver having spent a second-round pick in 2025 on Harvey and a fourth-rounder this year on Coleman. Harvey is likely to get most of the pass-catching opportunities but averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in the 2025 regular season compared to Dobbins' 5.0, while the 5-foot-8, 220-pound Coleman may be the bigger threat to Dobbins' opportunities on early downs. The Broncos may opt to keep four running backs on the 53-man roster, with Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie battling for the final spot.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)84supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 RUSH TD(×0.99 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	40%	4/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%3/9Low

Last matchup — vs LV

Nov 7, 2025

14thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

LV allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 40 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.