Denver Broncos

J.K. Dobbins Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

J.K. Dobbins has gone over 1.5 TGT in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.3 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

QuestionableConfirm J.K. Dobbins's status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified

The latest news on Dobbins aligns with what James Palmer of Bleacher Report previously relayed following the Broncos' 20-13 win over the Jaguars on Sunday, when Dobbins made an early exit due to a "slight" hamstring issue. While the Broncos are optimistic that Dobbins won't have to miss any time, his activity during practices Wednesday through Friday will ultimately determine whether he suits up against the Rams. Denver could have all of its key backfield members available for Week 3, as head coach Sean Payton suggested during his press conference Monday that RJ Harvey (hamstring) could return to action after sitting out against the Jaguars, per Nick Kosmider of The Athletic.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

Cool underFireFactor 39/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency19argues against it

Projection

1.0 TGT(×0.97 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2011 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Season11 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	91%	10/11
1.5Current	36%	4/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days30%3/10Low

Next matchup — vs LAR

Sep 28, 2026

11thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

LAR allows 3.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 1.5 TGT 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 36% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.