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Denver BroncosJ.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
J.K. Dobbins has gone over 3.5 REC YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 3.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm J.K. Dobbins's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Hamstring Not Specified
The latest news on Dobbins aligns with what James Palmer of Bleacher Report previously relayed following the Broncos' 20-13 win over the Jaguars on Sunday, when Dobbins made an early exit due to a "slight" hamstring issue. While the Broncos are optimistic that Dobbins won't have to miss any time, his activity during practices Wednesday through Friday will ultimately determine whether he suits up against the Rams. Denver could have all of its key backfield members available for Week 3, as head coach Sean Payton suggested during his press conference Monday that RJ Harvey (hamstring) could return to action after sitting out against the Jaguars, per Nick Kosmider of The Athletic.
Verdict
vs 3.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.8 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 2.8 · L10 3.2 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 3.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 27% | 3/11 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
LAR allows 11.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, J.K. Dobbins has gone over 3.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (11.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 3.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-106
-2.8% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-110
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.3%
Our model puts the over at 47.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.
More J.K. Dobbins research
J.K. Dobbins — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Dobbins Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Dobbins Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.